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10/10 for Rogue Analyst

Posted on November 27, 2007 by Richard Beddard
Filed Under Companies, Investing |

I’ve been following Rogue Analyst for a while now. He’s a blogging investor who talks about his own share holdings.

It’s a brave thing to do, honestly. For one thing, no investor has a 100% track-record. For another, there must be a temptation to put a positive gloss on events when they go against you.

Here’s Rogue Analyst talking about Armorgroup last Friday:

I see no reason to expect a profit warning.”

And here he is today, saying:

Well that makes me look like a pillock.”

“That” being a profit warning, a collapse in the share price, and the resignation of the ceo.

He follows up with an appraisal of Armorgroup now, and this conclusion:

At 30p, however, ARG is trading on about 0.54x book value ex-goodwill. That’s a bankruptcy valuation, and I don’t think Armorgroup is going bankrupt. I have a five-year time horizon for any stock I invest in and will continue to hold.

You wouldn’t get that in mainstream media! Not the bum steer, they happen all the time, but the follow-up. 10/10 for the blogger.

Comments

3 Responses to “10/10 for Rogue Analyst”

  1. Robin on November 27th, 2007 7:18 pm

    Many thanks for your merciful write up.

    I hope that Armorgroup will come good in the end but I guess that public humiliation is just part of the joy of blogging…

    Robin
    www.rogueanalyst.com

  2. Richard Beddard on November 28th, 2007 12:22 pm

    You’re a braver man than I Robin, pain goes with the territory for value investors and I’m feeling it too (Marchpole - a case in point).

    One of the things holding me back from posting trenchant views on shares I own is that I worry that fear of public humiliation will affect my investment decisions. It’s one of the advantages of private investors that we can take deeply contrarian positions and not worry about what our clients/investors/trustees etc think.

    I hope you’re made of tougher stuff and continue to post!

  3. The path for Paragon (PAG) : The Rogue Analyst on November 28th, 2007 1:30 pm

    […] yesterday’s Armorgroup fiasco (thank you to Interactive Investor and Controlled Greed for not taking the piss) I feel a strong desire to write about someone […]

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