Blogging resumed
Posted on June 10, 2008 by Richard Beddard
Filed Under Companies, Markets |
Haynes, which publishes the famous motor manuals, is very cheap but sales are slipping away and even the company isn’t sure to what extent that’s because of the deteriorating economy and to what extent it’s because we don’t bother fixing our own cars any more.
It’s not taking any chances, though. In February Haynes bought Vivid, a supplier of technical information to professional European motor mechanics, and it plans to bring Vivid to its English speaking markets. That way, whoever fixes your car, Haynes can supply the blueprints.
Judging by Haynes’ share price, the market isn’t impressed, which could be an opportunity for investors who can see beyond the next set or results.
My big worry about Haynes is that it seems to be the share that killed the Rogue Analyst, until recently one of a very select group of UK financial bloggers. Haynes was the last share he wrote about, before shutting the lid on his laptop and closing the blog.
The Haynes article will be the first in a monthly column: ‘Share sleuth‘. My brief is to analyse companies that are flying below the City’s radar. Because analysts aren’t analysing them and journalists aren’t investigating them I’ll rely on the time-honoured investment skills of reading the annual report, calling the financial director, and ‘kicking the tyres’ by checking the company’s products.
As you can see, I went to the dingiest Halfords in the country (Cambridge, where admittedly the bike department is probably busier) to satisfy myself it still stocked Haynes manuals.
There’s a particular buzz when you ‘discover’ a company for yourself - as opposed to reading about it in a Sunday paper. Not quite like being the first man on the moon, perhaps, but the closest you can get in investing terms. In the new column I will be encouraging other investors inclined to do their own research and, I hope, learn from them.
Dairy Crest, may well be my next iBall. We’ve already given Haynes the iBall treatment and I commend the opening skit to you even though I didn’t write that bit. That’s ed-in-chief (a.k.a. he who does not blog) Steve McDowell bumping his head on the bonnet of his Merc. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bloke.
I fear I shan’t be posting as many finished articles in this blog, as I’m writing an increasing number for publication elsewhere. However, ever the optimist, I’m planning to increase the number of blogs I write. They’ll be more rough ‘n ready I’m afraid, like this one. Bits of research I’ve done, ideas, opinions, observations and links to things that have impressed me on the Internet.
That leads me back to George Soros. You’ve got to watch this Q&A with Sir Howard Davies, former City regulator, now chairman of the London School of Economics. Mr Soros has a new book out, which melds an explanation of the credit crunch with his theory of reflexivity (markets aren’t rational but boom and bust) and leads him to the conclusion that we’re witnessing the end of a credit supercycle that can only end in recession.
Reflexivity reminds me of Benoit Mandelbrot’s fractal theory, which he applied to markets - how they are ‘wild’ not ‘mild’. Both men are critics of financial maths, a familiar theme to regular readers of this blog.
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