Guarding against ego risk
In practice:
Up fell, down dale
I’ll start today’s blog more or less where I finished Monday’s appraisal of Anite, a profitable software company, with strong finances that is maybe, kind of, but not certainly, cheap.
Like most value investors I think much more about safety, than I do about returns, taking the view, contrary to conventional thinking, [...]
Step forward… The real Thrifty 30
In practice:
I name this portfolio…
Regular readers will be familiar with my Thrifty 30 portfolios. They are portfolios of thirty shares in financially strong companies at cheap prices. I first tried it on this blog, then I had a go for Money Observer [pdf]. Up to now, though, I have not maintained a Thrifty 30 portfolio. [...]
Good companies at cheap prices
In practice
A random walk down Wall Street
How soon my ‘extended break’ ended. Now it feels like a mini-break and while I’m looking forward to resuming our discussions about the state of the market, and interesting companies, a bit of me is still in the middle of the Atlantic
All I got from Bermuda (apart [...]
Minsky, mortgages and you
In practice:
Minksy’s protracted moment
If you follow this blog, you’ll recognise these names: Jeremy Grantham, Nouriel Roubini, Robert Shiller, and James Montier. I’ve quoted them many times, and they anticipated the financial crisis.
They have something else in common, they’re all followers of economist Hyman Minsky. Grantham describes himself as a Minsky maven. Roubini feared we were [...]
Not quite 30 glorious years
In history:
30 28 25 23 glorious years
The last 30 years were momentous for investors but what did they mean to you? I’m writing the story of the stockmarket in the words of the private investors who bought and sold shares since the Thatcher years. The article will appear in Money Observer later this year, [...]
Thrifty 30 progress report
In practice:
Good companies at cheap prices
Occasionally on Twitter investors, as opposed to people hawking porn sites, show interest in my tweets. So, when henrio83 asked ‘What’s happened to your thrifty thirty?’ I thought I should explain.
First, a quick recap.
Thrifty 30 is the name I gave a method of discovering good companies at cheap prices. [...]
Deficient Markets Hypothesis
In theory:
As dead as a parrot
In his latest note, Soc Gen Analyst James Montier, compares the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) to Monty Python’s dead parrot.
No matter how much you point out that it is dead, the believers just respond that it is simply resting!
Montier’s often pronounced EMH dead. In fact, he’s getting so frustrated he’s [...]
The How and Why of value investing
In practice:
It’s not science, and it’s not about rockets
As a youngster, the “How and Why” books inspired me and I’ve just experienced overwhelming nostalgia browsing this website. I’m not alone. Definitely not alone!
How and Why books explained things, and to a boy who’s previous main source of wisdom had been the Valiant Annual, How [...]
How many economists does it take to start a flamewar?
In theory:
It takes two, baby
Of all the bad jokes about economists my favourite doesn’t involve changing light bulbs:
Q: Why did God create economists?
A: To make weather forecasters look good.
Although our understanding of the economy, and the atmosphere, is sophisticated it doesn’t mean we can predict how they will behave, mostly because of the bewildering number [...]
Cataclysm postponed, temporarily
In practice:
How inflation, population, and developing countries could take us back to the ‘70’s
You have to watch this two part video interview with Russell Napier on the FT site earlier this month:
Bear market bottoms
Cataclysmic bear market
If you do, come back, because I rang Mr Napier last week asking him to clarify his prophecy of doom. [...]
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