Flogging today: Correction or crash? Rubbish forecasts, WB etc.
Posted on March 5, 2007 by Richard Beddard
Filed Under Investing |
A round-up of the financial blogs and internet today:
The consensus is falls in stock markets around the world are a correction, not a crash. It’s been a lean sequence of years for doomsayers though, and like frogs, they’re coming out to enjoy the rain. Dr Marc Faber, aka Dr Doom, is one of the most credible (he’s also a bit more cheerful than your traditional end-of-the-world-is-nigh doom monger, perhaps there’s a correlation). In this video interview from Bloomberg, via Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis, he says:
- The S&P could easily fall 10 or 15%, followed by a summer rebound and another big sell off towards the end of the year
- India and China could easily drop 30 to 40%.
Meanwhile, UK Investor AB Enquirer thinks he’s angered the investment gods.
Being a firm believer in minimising redundancy, and because Alphaville has already done the job, here’s some more opinion from the blogosphere.
And because the opportunity is too easy to pass up, a gratuitous reminder on why economic forecasts are rubbish from the New York Times. It doesn’t actually mention the tools of traditional economics might be broken, the subject of a very interesting book I’m reading.
Elsewhere, researchers, academics, and Warren Buffett are impervious to the storms around them, as they go about their daily business:
- A study on Mood and UK Equity pricing reveals that wind speed and high temperatures affect prices, but rain, storms, seasonal affective disorder, daylight savings time changes and lunar phases do not. However, “Results are generally unfavourable towards a conclusion that mood influences aggregate UK equity pricing.” (via the CXO Advisory Group Blog).
OK, that was a bit of trivia for you, but another mention for the CXO Advisory Group blog would surely earn it a place on our blogroll (the list of blogs on the right hand side of blog.iii.co.uk). And here it is:
- The predictive power of the dividend yield is enhanced by accounting for share buybacks and issues. Obvious really, so why didn’t I think of that? Especially since I’ve been busy reporting on Dr Keith Anderson’s high performance PE ratio.
And last, but definitely not least:
- Warren Buffett published his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders on Thursday. It’s his 97th isn’t it?
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