Man versus economic model
Posted on January 12, 2007 by Richard Beddard
Filed Under Investing |
Economist Simon Ward was the only forecaster of 50 polled by Reuters who correctly predicted yesterday’s Bank of England interest rate rise. According to FT.com’s Alphaville he pre-empted his own economic model, which forecast a rise in February - a view shared by 40% of the economists. He said:
I had to apply a bit of reasoning — if that was what was predicted for next month, what was to stop the MPC moving now?
The Bank of England raised the official bank rate by 0.25% to 5.25% yesterday, it’s highest since May 2001. The base rate peaked at 17% in 1979. In 1694, the earliest year recorded in Bank of England statistics, it was 6%.
Category: Investing
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