The wisdom of crowds of gurus
Posted on November 27, 2007 by Richard Beddard
Filed Under Markets |
Over at CXO Advisory Blog Steve LeCompte is determinedly trying to make sense of market pundits. He finds that on average they are right 49% of the time, which means they are wrong 51% of the time.
As a group, then, they’re useless (my interpretation, not his 
). But by weighting their medium-term outlooks so that the most accurate pundits in the past have the greatest influence on the average and inaccurate pundits exert an inverse influence, he may have come up with a more useful measure.
The CXO weighted measure of guru groupthink is bullish, at +24%, but not as bullish as the previous times he’s measured it (+31%,+37%, +59% and +29% over the past year or so).
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