Oct 10, 2011
Richard Beddard

Turnarounds and champions

Chipping away at the blind spots

This month’s Thrifty screen has dredged up a bunch of shares dependent on the moribund housing market and Jersey Electricity, which fascinates and frightens me.

111006ThriftyScreen

[Spreadsheet]

Jersey Electricity is quasi-utility with a monopoly on the electricity supply to the island of Jersey via two submarine cables controlled by the local government. When I last looked at it, the shares cost more than any other in the UK market, but relative to all the property the company owns, it’s among the cheapest.

Because it derives its low valuation from its status as a utility, Jersey Electricity doesn’t fit the profile of a typical Thrifty company, which is a temporarily distressed and may be recovering. Scapa, a company that makes adhesive tape looks more promising. It’s twentieth in the screen, and so not shown here.

111006NiftyScreen

[Spreadsheet]

The Nifty screen, which identifies ‘hidden champions’, businesses that can sustain high profitability, is dominated by companies in risky businesses sectors that have grown strongly thanks to the tailwind of globalisation. The market values of oil exploration and production companies, ship brokers and miners depend even more than most on continuing global growth, which is uncertain. What is certain is the destinies of companies in sectors like this are not in their own hands,

I’m simply overawed by the long cycles of boom and bust that drive these companies and paralysed by indecision when deciding whether they are safe investments.

The most likely companies to make it in to the Thrifty 30 from the Nifty screen are in the bottom half of the table. Haynes, Dewhurst and Colefax are already in it. Chime is a former constituent I have mixed feelings about. Video game retailer Game, and construction company T Clarke, make the table by virtue of their very low valuations but probably don’t belong in a list of stable growing companies due to crumbling business fundamentals.

My local Game shop has a poster on its window saying:

It’s not just about the games… We also sell iTunes cards, Club Penguin memberships [and more, see the picture below]

It looks desperate when a company sidelines its core business in its own promotions to flog Angry Birds key rings. Today it’s promoting access to entertainment that can only be delivered online, and that shift to online distribution has undermined Game’s status as a Nifty company.

Choosing from the Nifty list then, three of the bottom five companies look worthy of investigation: Sausage maker Cranswick, fashion house Jacques Vert, and medical device company Smith & Nephew. Despite being bottom of my table, they’re still in the top 10% of all companies that meet the Nifty criteria.

To make the tables more relevant, I could exclude some of the sectors that baffle and repel me, like property, financial services, media, oil and gas, and mining, but I like to see the companies I’m choosing to avoid.

Although I can’t make sense of many of them now, I may be able to one day. And surely that’s the way to become a better investor: Chipping away at the blind spots.

2011-10-10-P1050337

Nice poster, shame about the message…

8 Comments

  • Game – I reckon that’s toast. I now disbelieve the whole cyclical play thing. I’m not a games player, but I did recently buy Deus Ex Human Revolutions. I love it, BTW. The real weird thing is that you get a DVD box, which basically just seems to contain the “Steam” system, and a registration code. You register the game, and download it from t’internet. An aweful way of doing things, but I think it demonstrates how Game are completely dead in the water hereon out. I think you can get lots of games and trials via the Steam system. I haven’t tried them myself.

    I’m glad you like Smith & Nephew, although I heard someone opine that the strength of its business is essentially bailing out some so-so management.

  • Oh, I forgot to mention – I bought it from Amazon.

    So, game over for Game. (sorry, couldn’t resist the wordplay).

    • Do you still hold HMV though Blippy. Same story, surely? They’re almost next door to each other in Cambridge. One painted black, the other panted white, but otherwise the same. Every time I go past I feel a strong sense of nostalgia, almost like they’ve already gone.

      • I did hold HMV, but sold out in Jun 2010 at 57p – so ages ago. I bought in Dec 2008 at 108p. Not one of my more inspired buys (:groan:). It’s frightening to think that it has declined over 90% since even then. It’s very difficult to see HMV as anything other than a basket case at this point. Net debt 168m, market cap 19m, it has negative equity, and analysts forecast losses for the next two years.

        I had to look up Angry Birds on the internet, BTW. Saw this video on YouTube where the Birds were in court; and there was swearing. So I guess it must be different Angry Birds, or something. Beats me. I guess it must be some kind of FaceBook thing.

        • I owned them in Feb 2008: http://blog.iii.co.uk/hmv/ but can’t believed I held for long reading what I was thinking at the time.

          Interesting looking back at those old posts.There’s a good discussion in the comments.

          I think Angry Birds is an iPhone app but what would I know – I’ve got a Blackberry (which is increasingly looking obsolete too)

  • Hi guys. It really is quite astonishing to see that picture of Game as just today I walked past my store near work in redhill and felt the same sentimental thoughts about this buisness and HMV, not to mention Richards list looking like a notepad doc on my desktop :) . I have brought 2 stocks in the drop. A house builder at 80.3p then 75.4p and a more specialist energy company at 13.3p. If I’m right in my thinking I prob won’t even need mention the names.

    Ahh Jersey electricity, I feel a fear here at this level. I know this angry birds, apparently David Cameron is a fan. Iv never played it but that deus ex is good fun.

    Blippy, I miss the days when you got a box full of disks, I like my £30 to weigh £30. Know what I mean.

    I have to say, I am rather stuck despite thorough analysis with say, Bhp Bill, Rio tinto which cashflow/p.e strain my against the liabilitys. Somewhat frozen in macro space is my feeling.

    I know a bit about Caffyns, secret I’m a afraid. Shame about the spread, nice management :)

  • That picture of the Game store is a bullish sign! Cost control – no fancy posters from now on, just felt tips and paper for the staff… Surely that kind of thriftiness merits inclusion in your portfolio!

    • Very good professor. You’re obviously not a professor of finance!

Leave a comment

RB on Twitter

Archives